Anthropic's review of 56 US studies reveals that job retraining programs increase employment by 2-3 percentage points and earnings by roughly $1,000 annually, but sector-specific programs show larger gains. The study, coauthored by independent researcher David Roodman and Anthropic's Maxim Massenkoff, highlights the need for more effective programs as AI threatens to displace workers at scale.
TL;DR
- Anthropic's review of 56 US studies and experimental evidence from Europe finds job retraining programs yield modest gains in employment and earnings.
- Sector programs, which partner with employers in high-demand industries, produce larger gains but have often failed to replicate.
- The authors recommend investing in demonstrating, evaluating, and scaling the most promising programs to prepare for AI-driven labor market disruption.
What happened
Anthropic, an AI safety and research company, published a review of the evidence on worker retraining programs, coauthored by independent researcher David Roodman and Anthropic's Maxim Massenkoff. The review is part of Anthropic's Economic Research team's work on AI's effects on the economy.
The review draws on 56 randomized US studies, combined in a new meta-analysis, along with experimental evidence from Europe. On average, job training programs produce positive but modest effects: for each person offered a training slot, employment rises by two to three percentage points and earnings by roughly $1,000 a year, against a cost of about $13,000.
The authors found that a small set of "sector programs"—programs that partner with employers in a high-demand industry and place people directly into jobs in that field—produce gains several times larger. However, attempts to replicate these programs have often failed.
Why it matters
As AI threatens to displace workers at scale, the review highlights the need for more effective retraining programs. The authors conclude that existing retraining programs would likely fall short in the face of significant labor market disruption from AI.
The review's central recommendation is to invest now in demonstrating, evaluating, and scaling the most promising programs, including through an effort to rapidly expand a leading program for a specific group of workers and rigorously measure the results. This investment could help prepare for the potential labor market disruption caused by AI.
For developers and startups, the review underscores the importance of considering the broader economic impact of AI and the need for effective policies to mitigate labor market disruption. For investors, the review highlights the potential for investment in promising retraining programs and the need for rigorous evaluation of their effectiveness.
Key facts
- The review draws on 56 randomized US studies and experimental evidence from Europe.
- On average, job training programs increase employment by two to three percentage points and earnings by roughly $1,000 a year.
- The cost of job training programs is about $13,000 per person offered a training slot.
- Governments recover more than half of what they spend on job training programs through added tax revenue and reduced benefit payments, with programs roughly breaking even overall.
- Sector programs, which partner with employers in high-demand industries, produce gains several times larger than average job training programs.
- Attempts to replicate sector programs have often failed.
- The authors recommend investing in demonstrating, evaluating, and scaling the most promising programs to prepare for AI-driven labor market disruption.
Context
Anthropic's Economic Index tracks how AI is being used across occupations and industries. Earlier this year, the company published a framework for measuring AI's effects on the labor market and identifying the jobs most likely to be affected. The Economic Policy Framework sets out possible policy responses, including worker retraining, across a range of scenarios.
The review of worker retraining programs is part of Anthropic's ongoing work to understand the evidence behind each of these policy responses. The company's Economic Futures Research Fund is designed to fund investigations into questions like these.
The review comes as AI continues to advance rapidly, with the potential to disrupt labor markets and displace workers. Effective policies to mitigate these disruptions will be increasingly important in the coming years.
