ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker, has raised its 2026 revenue guidance to between €43 billion and €45 billion, marking the second upward revision this year. This surge is driven by unprecedented AI capital spending, with EUV revenue jumping 45% year-over-year.
TL;DR
- ASML raises 2026 revenue forecast to €43-45B due to AI-driven chip demand.
- EUV revenue surged 45% YoY, with memory-related revenue up 75%.
What happened
ASML has increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between €43 billion and €45 billion, the second upward revision this year. This adjustment is primarily due to the relentless demand for AI infrastructure, which requires advanced chips manufactured using ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.
The company reported a 45% year-over-year increase in EUV revenue and a 75% surge in memory-related revenue. To meet this demand, ASML plans to expand its EUV production capacity by 30% in 2027, with further capacity reviews already underway for 2028.
Why it matters
This news underscores the ongoing AI spending wave, which shows no signs of slowing down. For AI/ML developers and startup founders, this means continued investment in AI infrastructure and the potential for more advanced chips to enter the market, easing GPU scarcity.
For tech investors, ASML's aggressive expansion plans signal strong long-term growth prospects. However, export controls, particularly regarding China, could create turbulence. For now, demand from non-restricted markets appears sufficient to justify ASML's expansion.
Key facts
- ASML raises 2026 revenue guidance to €43-45 billion.
- EUV revenue increased by 45% year-over-year.
- Memory-related revenue surged by 75% over the same period.
- ASML plans to expand EUV production capacity by 30% in 2027.
- ASML acquired an 11% stake in Mistral AI for €1.3 billion in 2025.
- Multi-year contracted commitments provide visibility into the demand pipeline.
- ASML's EUV machines are subject to export controls, particularly regarding China.
- TSMC, Samsung, and Intel all rely on ASML for advanced chip manufacturing.
Context
ASML's strategic investment in Mistral AI highlights the growing integration of AI capabilities into semiconductor manufacturing. This move positions ASML not just as a chipmaker enabler but also as an AI investor.
The persistent demand for AI infrastructure is likened to an 'arms race' by ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet. This underscores the competitive landscape and the critical role of ASML in preventing supply bottlenecks.
