Ed Zitron, a technology critic, warns that OpenAI's potential collapse could trigger a market crash akin to Lehman Brothers, citing $748 billion in obligations to major tech giants. The critic argues that OpenAI's failure would have ripple effects across the entire AI industry.
TL;DR
- Ed Zitron warns OpenAI's collapse could trigger a market crash due to $748B obligations to Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle.
- OpenAI's financial exposure includes a $122B funding round and $50B in compute spending this year.
- The critic argues that OpenAI's failure would mark a turning point in the AI industry, similar to Lehman Brothers' collapse.
What happened
Ed Zitron, a technology critic, published a post warning that OpenAI's collapse could trigger a market crash, comparing it to the fall of Lehman Brothers. He argues that OpenAI is a critical pillar of the AI industry's financial architecture.
Zitron contends that OpenAI's failure would cause a significant market crash, given its $748 billion in performance obligations to Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle. He also highlights OpenAI's $50 billion compute spending this year and a $122 billion funding round that has not fully closed.
OpenAI submitted a confidential IPO filing with the SEC last month at an $852 billion valuation, but may delay its public offering until 2027 due to market conditions. The company posted a net loss of $38.5 billion in 2025 on $13.07 billion in revenue.
Why it matters
For developers and startups, OpenAI's collapse could lead to a significant reduction in funding and investment in the AI sector, making it harder to secure capital for new projects.
Investors may become more cautious about pouring money into AI startups, leading to a potential slowdown in innovation and growth in the industry.
The competitive landscape could shift dramatically, with other AI companies like Anthropic facing similar financial pressures and potential instability.
Key facts
- OpenAI has $748 billion in performance obligations to Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle.
- The company plans to spend over $50 billion on compute this year.
- OpenAI is carrying a $122 billion funding round, with SoftBank Group contributing $30 billion in tranches.
- Oracle has committed over $340 billion to build data center capacity for OpenAI as part of a $300 billion compute contract.
- OpenAI submitted a confidential IPO filing with the SEC at an $852 billion valuation.
- The company posted a net loss of $38.5 billion in 2025 on $13.07 billion in revenue.
- OpenAI may delay its public offering until 2027 due to market conditions.
- Ed Zitron argues that OpenAI's collapse could trigger a market crash similar to Lehman Brothers.
Context
OpenAI is a leading AI company known for its large language models, including ChatGPT. The company has been a significant driver of AI innovation and investment in recent years.
The AI industry has seen a surge in investment and spending since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. This has led to massive infrastructure investments and a boom in AI startups.
Anthropic, OpenAI's closest competitor, also faces financial pressures and relies on the mythology surrounding OpenAI for its own existence, according to Zitron.